New top story on Hacker News: Persi Diaconis Mixes Math and Magic (2015)

Persi Diaconis Mixes Math and Magic (2015)
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We Need to Talk about Joe Biden

There are two possible explanations of Joe Biden’s inability to tell the truth about things: One is that his mind is failing him, the other is that his honor is. In neither case is Biden fit to hold the office of president of the United States of America, and Democrats would discredit themselves and endanger the nation to nominate him.Yes, yes, go ahead — “But, Trump!” etc. — and continue when you’ve completed the ritual of equivocation, and don’t think too hard about how far and in what direction that line of moral self-justification has carried the Republican party.Joe Biden is a plagiarist and a liar, among other things. In the most recent example, detailed by the Washington Post, Biden made up a story in which he as vice president displayed personal courage and heroism in traveling to a dangerous war zone in order to recognize the service of an American soldier who had distinguished himself in a particularly dramatic way. It was a moving story. “This is the God’s truth,” he concluded. “My word as a Biden.”But his word as a Biden isn’t worth squat, as the Post showed, reporting that “Biden got the time period, the location, the heroic act, the type of medal, the military branch and the rank of the recipient wrong, as well as his own role in the ceremony.” Which is a nice way of saying: Biden lied about an act of military heroism in order to aggrandize his own role in the story.Like Hillary Rodham Clinton under fictitious sniper fire, Biden highlighted his own supposed courage in the face of physical danger: “We can lose a vice president. We can’t lose many more of these kids.”If Biden here is lying with malice aforethought, then he ought to be considered morally disqualified for the office. If he is senescent, then he obviously is unable to perform the duties associated with the presidency, and asking him to do so would be indecent, dangerous, and unpatriotic.The evidence points more toward moral disability than mental disability, inasmuch as Biden has a long career of lying about precisely this sort of thing.The most dramatic instance of that is Biden’s continued insistence on lying about the circumstances surrounding the horrifying deaths of his wife and daughter in a terrible car accident. It is not the case, as Biden has said on many occasions, that they were killed by a drunk driver, an irresponsible trucker who “drank his lunch,” as Biden put it. That is a pure fabrication, and a slander on the man who was behind the wheel of that truck and who was haunted by the episode until the end of his days. Imagine yourself in the position of that man's family, whose natural sympathy for Biden’s loss must be complicated by outrage at his persistent lying about the relevant events.Why would Biden lie about the death of his wife and daughter? Why would he lie about the already-heroic efforts of American soldiers? In both cases, to make the story more dramatic, to give himself a bigger and more impressive narrative arc. That he would subordinate other people — real people, living and dead — to his own political ambition in such a callous and demeaning way counsels strongly against entrusting him with any more political power than that which he already has wielded.Biden lies about matters great and small. He lies about his trip to Afghanistan. He lies about the death of his wife and daughter. He is wildly dishonest about his role in the Iraq War and the 1994 crime bill, landmark moments in his legislative career that later became political liabilities. And whatever the state of his brain today, he was not senile back in 1987, when he plagiarized the words of Margaret Thatcher and Neil Kinnock for his own speeches. Like his lies, his plagiarism is part of a lifelong habit: As recently as this year, he was filling out his policy papers with uncredited — stolen — material from advocacy groups.The United States has become an empire of lies. We are governed by liars chosen on the basis of lies, and the worst partisans have begun openly to admire the lies, so long as they are skillfully constructed and delivered. The lowest among us enjoy being lied to and celebrate it. Entire political careers are based on lies — and policy initiatives, too.But if not the serial liar Joe Biden, then whom will the Democrats choose? Elizabeth Warren, who has misrepresented her supposed Native American ancestry? Kamala Harris, who has lied about murder in order to serve her own political ends? Robert Francis O’Rourke, who cannot tell the truth for five minutes about basic and fundamental questions of public policy?The Democrats are ready to go into November with nothing better to say for themselves than, “Our liar is better than their liar!” It is doubtful they will even be morally conflicted about that. But the nation will be worse off for it, inasmuch as democratic assumptions built on a foundation of lies must necessarily be unstable.Joe Biden has exhausted whatever presumption of goodwill or benefit of the doubt we might have extended to him for the past 46 years. He has had his chance to show that he is a man capable of honor, integrity, and honesty — and he has failed that test at every turn. If there ever was a time for him, that time has passed. The last thing this country needs is another pathological liar in its highest office. He is unfit for the presidency in every way, and Democrats owe the country better than to nominate him in the pursuit of their own selfish partisan interests.

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Here are the Apple products affected by Trump's latest move in the trade war with China (AAPL)

Trump's tariff on Chinese imports goes into effect on September 1, impacting Apple products like AirPods and the Apple Watch.

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Hong Kong protesters target airport but planes keep flying

Thousands of protesters blocked roads and public transport links to Hong Kong airport on Sunday in a bid to draw world attention to their fight for democracy for the Chinese-ruled city which is facing its biggest political crisis in decades. Planes were taking off and landing, with delays, but trains were suspended and approach roads to the airport impassable as protesters erected barricades and overturned trolleys at the airport and in the nearby new town of Tung Chung. Some passengers were forced to walk the last bit of their journey to the airport by foot, dragging luggage behind them.

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Hurricane Dorian: ‘Huge damage' in Bahamas as storm becomes joint strongest ever with 220mph gusts

Hurricane Dorian has caused major damage in the Bahamas – destroying homes and ripping roofs from buildings – as it made landfall as the joint-strongest ever Atlantic storm. There were no immediate reports of deaths.Residents in places such as the Abaco Islands and Marsh Harbour took shelter in schools and churches when Dorian made landfall as a category 5 storm with gusts of up to 220mph and a sustained speed of 185mph. When it struck land twice on Sunday afternoon – first in the Abaco Islands at then close to Marsh Harbour on Great Abaco Island – it equalled a record set by a Labour Day storm from 1935. That storm, which occurred before hurricanes were given names, ultimately left major damage in its wake in the Florida Keys.

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British police urged to assist New York investigators with Epstein case

British police should assist the New York investigators with their inquiry into Jeffrey Epstein’s sex trafficking network, a source close to one of his victims has said. New York authorities have repeatedly said that they will continue investigating whether he had co-conspirators, and will not let the case die with the disgraced financier. Epstein, 66, died on August 10 from what a coroner ruled was suicide, while awaiting trial in a Manhattan jail. New York prosecutors are now turning their attention to any co-conspirators – among them Ghislaine Maxwell, the British heiress, and Sarah Kellen, another Epstein employee. Two sources close to the investigation told The New York Times on Friday they were looking into the activities of Haley Robson, now 33, who told police in a 2009 deposition how she was paid to bring young girls to Epstein in Florida. Haley Robson, now 33, said in a 2009 deposition that she had been paid to recruit girls for Epstein Asked if the British police should assist the New York prosecutors, the source replied: "They should". Epstein owned homes in New York, Paris and New Mexico, and spent much of his time on the island he owned in the Caribbean. But his globe-trotting extended to the United Kingdom, where in June 2000 he was among 600 guests at Windsor Castle to celebrate four Royal birthdays, with “the dance of the decades”. In December 2000 he joined Prince Andrew and Miss Maxwell at the Queen’s Sandringham estate, and in early 2001 he was in London for a night out with Prince Andrew, Miss Maxwell and Virginia Roberts-Giuffre. Jeffrey Epstein and Ghislaine Maxwell, photographed at Sandringham in December 2000 Mrs Roberts-Giuffre claims that she was forced to have sex with the prince after their night out. He has vehemently denied her claims. All the allegations against the Duke were struck from the court record in 2015 after being described as "immaterial and impertinent" by a judge.   Now British police are being asked whether they intend to assist the New York prosecutors with their case. New York police refused to comment on their ongoing investigation. Last week detectives at the Metropolitan Police revealed they have “revisited” the decision not to investigate Epstein’s London links, but said their choice "remains entirely appropriate". The Met has previously received an allegation of non-recent trafficking for sexual exploitation but had closed the matter after deciding that the case would not progress to a full investigation. Despite possible information sharing between US and French authorities, the force confirmed on August 26 that it stands by its original decision and will not investigate his links to alleged crimes committed in the UK capital. “We acknowledge the considerable interest and concern around this case and have revisited that decision making and believe it remains entirely appropriate,” a spokesman for the force said. “Therefore no further action is being taken. The Met will always take seriously any allegation concerning sexual exploitation.”

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US blacklists Iranian tanker in Mediterranean

The United States has blacklisted the Iranian tanker Adrian Darya, saying it had "reliable information" it was transporting oil to Syria in defiance of wide-ranging sanctions on the regime of Bashar al-Assad. Previously known as Grace 1, the vessel was seized in July by British Royal Marines and held in Gibraltar for six weeks on suspicion it was delivering oil for Tehran's ally Damascus. The British territory released the ship -- despite US protests -- after it said it had received written assurances from Iran that the vessel would not head for countries under European Union sanctions.

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Government: Let's end agreement for migrant kid detention

The U.S. government on Friday took another major step to end a settlement agreement governing the length of time and conditions in which it can detain immigrant children. Government attorneys have filed a notice requesting that a federal judge dissolve what's widely known as the Flores settlement agreement. First signed in 1997, the agreement limits how long children can be in detention to generally 20 days while also spelling out conditions.

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Seth Ator Identified as Odessa Gunman

Texas Department of Public SafetyODESSA, Texas—The gunman who killed seven people and injured roughly 20 others during a 20-mile trail of carnage across West Texas was identified by law enforcement on Sunday as 36-year-old Seth Aaron Ator. Odessa Police refused to publicly identify Ator during a press conference on Sunday, stating that they were not going to give the gunman any notoriety for “what he did.” Police Chief Michael Gerke said the gunman’s name would be officially provided, just not in a public forum. The department instead chose to simply release his name and age, and confirm that he was an Odessa resident, in an update on the police department’s Facebook page later in the afternoon.Authorities were working to determine a motive for the Saturday shooting that took place in broad daylight and resulted in more than a dozen crime scenes across a stretch from Odessa to Midland. It claimed the lives of a high-school student and a U.S. Postal Service employee, among others.Odessa officials said Ator used an assault rifle-type weapon, but said how the gun was obtained is still under investigation. Police said that there is “no definite motive known,” and the FBI said that a preliminary investigation determined that the shooting is not connected to domestic or international terrorism. The FBI said during the press conference that they were executing a federal search warrant at a home linked to the gunman. Agents were later seen searching Ator’s house, located about 20 minutes west of Odessa. The home, set half a mile back from the main road, more closely resembles a shack, with what appears to be a makeshift tower placed on top. The area is surrounded by oil wells that easily outnumber the nearby trailers. Justin Hamel/For The Daily BeastAtor’s name was reported earlier in the day by several news outlets and initially confirmed to The Daily Beast by two law enforcement officials who shared the name on the condition of anonymity.Ator, who has a previous criminal record for trespassing and resisting arrest, according to the Texas Department of Public Safety records obtained by The Daily Beast, was killed in a shoot-out with police.Ator was pulled over by Odessa police shortly after 3 p.m. Saturday when he opened fire through the back window of his vehicle, before going on a shooting spree that spanned from Odessa to Midland—at one point, he hijacked a U.S. Postal Service van—and ended with him being killed during a gun battle with police in a movie theater parking lot. Odessa Victims Include Cops, a Baby, a High Schooler and a Postal CarrierHis victims ranged in age from 15 to 57 years old.This most recent shooting marks the third mass shooting in Texas in the past year, including the shooting in El Paso, Texas, that killed 22 people less than a month ago. “I have been to too many of these events,” Texas Governor Greg Abbott (R) said at the press conference.“Words alone are inadequate. Words must be met with action,” Abbott said. “We must broaden our efforts to address (Odessa) and we must do so quickly. We need solutions that will keep guns out of the hands of criminals like the killer in Odessa while also ensuring that we safeguard rights.”Reporters pressed the governor for answers on what is being done to address the state’s repeated mass shootings, especially in light of a series of new firearm laws loosening gun restrictions in Texas that were enacted mere hours after the Odessa rampage. In response, Abbott said: “Some of these laws were enacted for the purpose of making our community safer,” making reference to a new law that will allows more school marshals to be armed.Reporters then asked Abbott if there are plans to ban assault rifles, like the one used by Ator in Odessa. In response, Abbott said it’s the “kind of thing legislators are already talking about,” and added that assault rifles weren’t used in all of the state’s mass shootings. “We’re gonna look at every issue. There's no issue that we will not look at,” he said.A reporter then pressed the governor further on the assault rifle ban, noting that law enforcement officers are better equipped to go up against someone with a handgun than an assault rifle. To which Abbott replied: “And the people we also talk to are law enforcement officers.”‘We Got One in a Ditch’: Inside the Odessa Shooting RampageMichael Daly contributed to this story.Read more at The Daily Beast.Get our top stories in your inbox every day. Sign up now!Daily Beast Membership: Beast Inside goes deeper on the stories that matter to you. Learn more.

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UPDATE 2-Pope picks new cardinals, putting his stamp on Church's future

Pope Francis appointed 13 new cardinals in a surprise move on Sunday, again putting his stamp on the future of a Church he wants to be more open as most of those named are considered progressive on social issues. Ten of them are under the age of 80 and may one day be called to elect Francis' successor, increasing the possibility that the next pope will continue his policies.

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Hong Kong Masses Defy Police, Show China They’re Ready to Fight

(Bloomberg) -- Hong Kong’s masses swarmed downtown areas in defiance of a police ban on Saturday, showing they’re ready to resist harsher measures by local authorities and Beijing to quash pro-democracy protests that have raged for almost three months.Demonstrators threw Molotov cocktails and bricks, and set aflame a massive road block in the city center after tens of thousands marched and vowed to drag out disruptive anti-China protests until their demands were met. Some train stations were shuttered and subway services interrupted, while police warned the public to stay indoors and keep their windows shut in some areas as they use “appropriate force” to disperse demonstrators. Two warning shots were fired by police officers.It’s the 13th straight weekend of historic political unrest in the Asian financial center as rallies over a now-suspended bill to allow extraditions to China widened into a push for greater democracy. The violence came after police denied permission for the mass rally and arrested several prominent pro-democracy activists, warning others could also be detained for taking part in unauthorized assemblies.Numerous protesters on Saturday said those arrests -- which included Joshua Wong, who led an earlier wave of protests in 2014 -- had angered many and drawn people to the streets as they fight to preserve democratic freedoms. Some vowed to continue protests in coming days and said they were resorting to increasingly radical tactics, including targeting the city’s busy international airport, because the government didn’t listen after peaceful rallies of almost 2 million people.“Hopefully they will hear us if we do these kind of aggressive actions,” said Cheung, a 23-year-old protester clad in goggles and a gas mask, who only gave his surname. “There’ve been lots of peaceful protests and there was no response from the government. That’s why we’re being more aggressive and trying to disrupt the Hong Kong economy,” he said as police fired tear gas nearby at protesters pelting the city’s Legislative Council complex with eggs and bricks.Police ApprovalThe rally, called by the organizer of some of the city’s biggest protests, was canceled after failing to get police approval. It was originally planned to coincide with a decree from Beijing five years ago that dashed the hopes of many for true democracy in the former colony and helped set off the Occupy protest movement in 2014.“We’re here to protest that decision and to tell the Chinese government we do not agree with anything that is a barrier to our democracy, our universal suffrage,” said a 21-year-old student protester, who only gave his first name, Hugo.On Saturday, the Hong Kong government issued a formal statement on the issue, repeating that universal suffrage is the “ultimate aim,” but that election reforms will take place “in accordance with the principle of gradual and orderly progress.”The ongoing unrest represents the biggest threat to Beijing’s oversight of Hong Kong since the return to Chinese rule in 1997, and is a geopolitical embarrassment for President Xi Jinping as his government gets set to celebrate 70 years of communist rule on Oct. 1.As demonstrations drag out, protesters and the Hong Kong administration are being driven further apart. The government of Chief Executive Carrie Lam is refusing to rule out using a colonial-era emergency powers law, while demonstrators are ramping up disruptive protests as authorities stand firm on rejecting their demands for greater democracy.Flaming RoadblockThe clashes on Saturday were some of the most tense so far, with police spraying water tinted with blue dye from water cannons. Tear gas fired at protesters in gas masks and hardhats were lobbed back at officers, along with petrol bombs and bricks.Protesters later assembled a massive roadblock of plastic barricades and metal railings, as well as stands and fencing from a nearby park, before setting it on fire in the middle of Hennessy Road, a main thoroughfare that cuts through the city’s Wan Chai area. The fire sent thick plumes of black smoke into the air before firefighters extinguished the blaze.“The main objective of the fire is, first, to show that we are willing to fight,” said a university student who only gave his surname, Lau, as the fire blazed a block away. “The second objective is that we’ve formed a very major barricade for the police to overcome before they can charge toward us. This will give our frontline fighters more time to leave because a lot of protesters are being arrested already.”The gunshots were fired minutes apart shortly after 9 p.m. Hong Kong time as there were “serious threats” to the lives of its officers, Yolanda Yu, a police senior superintendent, said at a briefing early Sunday morning.Many demonstrators who participated in a peaceful march through the city left as clashes started. They came out in the pouring rain despite the police ban that exposed many of them to potential arrest.“They are trying to scare us, but I’m ready to be arrested,” said Philip, a 60-year-old pastor who only gave his first name and marched with his wife and two children. He said that he didn’t want to see clashes between protesters and police.Ronny Tong, a member of Lam’s advisory Executive Council, said in an interview on Friday that many Hong Kongers want to see demonstrators punished for the more violent protests that have occurred throughout the ongoing unrest.“We are a very pluralistic society and there’s been a very loud cry from different sectors of the community who have called for the arrest of the ringleaders of people who have been rioting in the streets, you know, committing arson and assaulting police officers,” he said.\--With assistance from Chloe Whiteaker.To contact the reporters on this story: Iain Marlow in Hong Kong at imarlow1@bloomberg.net;Aaron Mc Nicholas in Hong Kong at amcnicholas2@bloomberg.net;Fion Li in Hong Kong at fli59@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Shamim Adam at sadam2@bloomberg.net, Stanley JamesFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.

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Hurricane Dorian upgraded to ‘extremely dangerous’ storm as it nears Florida and Bahamas

Hurricane Dorian has ratcheted up to an “extremely dangerous” Category 4 storm as it slowly makes its way to the Bahamas and the east coast of Florida.Millions of people in the Bahamas and Florida, including the state’s Walt Disney World and NASA’s Kennedy Space Centre, may soon be finding themselves in the crosshairs of the hurricane.

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Texas shooter who killed 7 in Odessa identified

Police refused to release the gunman's identity in the shooting in Odessa and Midland, Texas, so as not to give him additional notoriety.

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Opposition supporters defy ban, march on Moscow

Chanting "This is our city", Russian opposition supporters marched in central Moscow Saturday in defiance of a protest ban, just a week before controversial elections in the capital. Under the watchful eye of police, hundreds participated in the so-called "March against political repressions", shouting out demands including: "Freedom to political prisoners!". Moscow police said turnout was about 750, while Russian media gave a figure of several thousand people.

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Preparing for Hurricane Dorian: Hurricanes are hard to predict. Human nature isn't.

Do some media hype tropical weather just to attract readers and viewers? Maybe. But they err on the side of caution when it comes to warning readers.

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What we know about the deadly shooting in Midland-Odessa, Texas

At least five people are dead and 21 injured after a shooting in the Midland-Odessa area in West Texas.

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DNC will reject Iowa Democrats' virtual caucus plan, throwing the state's first-in-the-nation status into question

The decision follows a meeting of the DNC’s Rules and Bylaws Committee last week in San Francisco, where members voiced concerns about cybersecurity.

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Hurricane Dorian is churning towards Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina – Here is where and when it's due to strike

Hurricane Dorian's path is nearing Florida, where it is no longer projected to make landfall, but still cause 'devastating hurricane-force winds.'

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China rejected HK plan to withdraw bill: sources

China recently rejected a formal submission from Hong Kong for a "full withdrawal" of an unpopular extradition bill.

That's according to three government sources who spoke exclusively with Reuters.

The bill is a key issue that's sparked months of protests in the city.

China's rejection represents concrete evidence of Beijing's control over the Hong Kong government's response to the protests.

It also calls into question China's promise that Hong Kong would have a high degree of autonomy.

(SOUNDBITE) (English) HONG KONG CHIEF EXECUTIVE CARRIE LAM, SAYING:

"I reiterate here, there is no such plan. The bill is dead."

Dead - but not 'withdrawn.'

Lam has stopped short of using that term, only saying work on the bill has stopped.

The protests didn't stop. They've lasted twelve straight weeks.

In press conferences, Lam has not been clear on whether she has the autonomy to withdraw the bill herself.

But one source told Reuters, Lam herself has said that her hands are tied and that Beijing wouldn't allow her to withdraw the bill.

(SOUNDBITE) (English) REUTERS' SENIOR CORRESPONDENT JAMES POMFRET (OFF-CAMERA), SAYING:

"Do you have the autonomy or not to withdraw the extradition bill? You have not answered the question, you have evaded the question."

Protesters' concerns have grown over the last few months, outlined in a list of five demands, including calls for fully democratic elections.

Protesters are also demanding a probe into excessive use of police force during the protests.

One source said that the demands were outlined in Lam's proposal to Beijing, and that even President Xi Jinping was aware of it.

Beijing rejected all five demands.

In recent weeks there have been signs of Beijing taking a harder line, with officials likening the protests to 'terrorism', paramilitary police conducting drills near the border and pressuring Hong Kong companies to suspend staff that supported the protests.

Lam's office did not comment directly on whether it has made a request to withdraw the bill.

China's central government also did not respond to requests for comment.

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'Your numbers are fake': Puerto Rico newspaper slams Trump for touting hurricane aid claim

"Mr. President: Your Numbers Are Fake," reads El Nuevo Dia's headline, referring to Trump's claim that the U.S. has allocated $92 billion for P.R.

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